Management of the Extreme Situation in the Climate Change Zone (Republic of Serbia): Criticism, Political-Ecological Perspective, and Complexitas Rerum

Abstract

This paper analyzes the perception of climate-related risks and emergency management capacities in the Toplica District (Republic of Serbia) through a critical political-ecological lens, drawing on the concept of complexitas rerum as a heuristic framework for understanding the interdependent relations among environmental processes, social structures, and institutional configurations of power. Extreme climate-related phenomena, particularly forest fires, are not treated as isolated natural events, but as socially mediated outcomes of interacting climatic, economic, and institutional factors that shape local vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining a survey of 180 respondents with qualitative insights from a contextual analysis of the regional socio-ecological setting. Empirical findings indicate a high perceived increase in forest fire frequency, strong awareness of climate change impacts, and widespread perceptions of insufficient institutional preparedness and response capacity. At the same time, results highlight the coexistence of individual adaptive strategies and a relatively weak reliance on formal institutional protection mechanisms, particularly in rural and peripheral communities. The paper critically engages with technocratic and depoliticized approaches to disaster and risk management, emphasizing the gap between formal institutional frameworks (de iure) and their practical implementation (de facto) in the context of available resources and capacities. It also highlights how climate risks are socially distributed, with marginalized rural populations experiencing higher exposure and lower access to institutional support. By integrating empirical survey data, regional contextual analysis, and political-ecological theory, the study demonstrates that climate change in the Toplica District is not merely an environmental phenomenon, but a complex socio-political process that reinforces existing inequalities. In this sense, the framework of political ecology, grounded in complexitas rerum, contributes to a more nuanced understanding of emergency management and supports the development of more equitable and locally grounded adaptation strategies amid increasing climate uncertainty.